Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
